Bad jobs are ones with low starting pay and no wage growth over a career.

Wage growth for both groups is likely to pick up in the final quarter of the year.

Wage growth has not been a perfect economic predictor, of course.

But wage growth has been stagnant over the last year.

"But over a few years, it will push the unemployment rate below 6 percent and create some real wage growth."

The 6.1 percent increase is derived from a Federal estimate of total wage growth this year.

But the long-term challenge of restoring wage growth is still before us.

Strangely, though, wage growth is slowing even without higher interest rates.

"I don't think we're going to see faster wage growth," she said.

We've reached a point where historical relationships would suggest some increase in wage growth.