But regional analysts suggest that notwithstanding any steps he takes now, a fight for power could erupt when the ailing Kim dies.

"This is a guy who knows a little bit about gold and corruption," said one regional military analyst.

"Al-Shabab may be on the back foot in places," says one regional analyst.

Iran's efforts to spread its influence around the Middle East have increased in the last two or three years, regional analysts say.

Some regional analysts have called such an action likely.

Diplomats and regional military analysts dismissed those reports.

And their view matters since, as many regional analysts believe, it was Tehran, not Washington, that "won" the war in Iraq.

But regional analysts said Mr. Hussein has shown little inclination for another foreign adventure and relies little on his air power.

While that remains unpredictable, some regional analysts think the chances of conflict are small.

There are a number of reasons for the shift, he and other regional analysts say.