Fifteen years ago, you just couldn't hold a rational discussion; even private-sector economists would refuse to criticize any government policy, no matter how absurd.

But most private-sector economists estimate that Mexico now has only half the record $16 billion in reserves it reported in the spring.

Still, private-sector and academic economists are deeply divided over whether inflation can remain low, as Chinese leaders have eased some of the controls they imposed last spring.

The German government confirmed what most private-sector economists have been saying for months: the economy is not expected to grow this year.

Mr. Stern of Southern California Edison and several private-sector economists have attacked the economic logic of that order.

Some private-sector economists estimate the package might increase growth by only about 1 percent or so.

Analysts said the new forecasts, which are more in line with predictions from private-sector economists, showed that the bank was facing up to the Continent's deteriorating growth prospects.

In recent weeks, the rise of interest rates in the United States has begun to attract Mexican investors again, according to private-sector economists here.

And private-sector economists are expecting growth above 3.5 percent this year.

One can fault government economists for not incorporating this fact into their budget projections, but private-sector economists did no better.