Festivities in several non-Russian republics were canceled, scaled down or relocated to military bases to avoid violence.

Many have relatives in non-Russian republics who could be vulnerable to violent nationalism.

Most Russian nationalists, however, advocate keeping the non-Russian republics, such as Lithuania, by force if necessary.

That leaves Kazakhstan as the only large, non-Russian republic still firmly in the rouble zone.

"National passions are being unleashed" in the non-Russian republics, and "the national issue has become the central dilemma of Soviet political life," he said.

But independence is not necessarily the rallying cry in all the non-Russian republics.

Large numbers of ethnic Russians were incentivized to move into the non-Russian republics, including Estonia.

There are, he says, people who actually believe that in the event of war, "the non-Russian republics would welcome the American troops with flowers."

Huge chunks of the Soviet military - troops, weapons, installations - were nationalized by non-Russian republics.

Mr. Gorbunov said the trickiest question may be the third: how to protect the interests of the non-Russian republics.