Any market forecaster not satisfied with an 88 percent success rate, however, can do better by making the indicator more complicated.
There were rumors that an influential market forecaster foresaw much lower prices.
As it happens, the January effect has grown less useful as a market forecaster in recent years, as its magnitude has deteriorated.
Two of Wall Street's most prominent market forecasters took a look at the Dow yesterday and came up with entirely different predictions.
But during much of this decade, it has worked as a market forecaster.
It makes no sense that the result of the Super Bowl should be useful as a market forecaster, but it too is widely followed.
Since then, the Fed has sometimes seemed determined to confound market forecasters.
Q. Some market forecasters say that with rates rising, a correction of 5 to 10 percent is quite possible in the next month to six weeks.
Q. You don't see yourself as a market forecaster, but you do make forecasts.
Some market forecasters are taking a middle road, predicting a correction in stock prices, but betting that it will be a mild one.