Meanwhile, this year's hurricane forecast is for at least seven storms, which would be above-average activity.

The government said today that it would extend the range of its hurricane forecasts starting this season, to five days from three.

Early models use data from previous model runs while late models produce output after the official hurricane forecast has been sent.

We will discuss our research program on socio-economic aspects of the hurricane forecast and warning system.

We will start with a brief review of the Hurricane Forecast Socio-Economic Working Group effort that defined a social science research agenda on hurricane forecasts.

This will include a discussion of non-market approaches for deriving values for hurricane forecasts.

Our discussion willthen focus on three funded projects examining different yet related aspects of the hurricane forecast and warning process integrating a variety of social sciences.

Also during that week, climatologists revised their hurricane forecasts, easing fears that oil supplies could be disrupted.

Dr. Gray could not be reached for comment, but he plans to update his hurricane forecast in August.

Federal officials said their five-day hurricane forecasts were now just as reliable as a three-day forecast was 15 years ago.