He would have to guess right on the next heart lead.

So the chance of a heart lead is perhaps 50-50.

A heart lead would have decided the issue, but West led a diamond.

Then a heart lead would have left her in full control.

But a heart lead did him no good at all, and he wound up down two.

Another heart lead completed the good work for the defense.

A heart lead would have been effective, but West had no reason to make that choice.

Five was much more likely, for with three he might well have selected a heart lead.

But West thought that a heart lead was now indicated.

Then a heart lead would have left him in control.