As Irene's forecast track became justified, the latter watch was upgraded to a warning on August 22, while a hurricane watch was declared for the central Bahamas.
The tropical depression becomes Tropical Storm Alex. The initial forecast track indicates it will not directly go over the spill.
Our official forecast track for the next 72 hours shows the storm moving only as far as the Alabama-Georgia border west of Atlanta.
The official forecast track was shifted further east, forecasting Gordon to track to the northeast.
To make a better forecast tracking, they studied the forecast tracks of cyclones Ron and Heta.
An accurate forecast track is required in order to produce accurate storm surge forecasts.
The watches for the Big Island were later cancelled as the forecast track appeared to drift further north toward Maui County and Oahu.
As Agatha became a tropical storm, forecasters predicted that it would not strengthen further, due to its forecast track passing over cooler waters.
It rapidly strengthened that morning as an eyewall quickly developed, the rapid intensification being attributed to warm water along the forecast track, which allowed for more rapid intensification.
Katrina, however, continued a westerly and west-southwesterly track, which eventually shifted the forecast track westward to New Orleans.