Economists polled by Reuters had expected a surplus of $15.9 billion.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the confidence measure to rise to 92.5.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected an 8pc increase.

But fewer than five economists polled last week were pessimistic enough to predict a recession in 1988.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would drop to 415,000 from earlier counts of 422,000.

On average, economists polled by Bloomberg News expect the economy to contract at a rate of 0.8 percent in the current quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast that consumer inflation will average 4.3% this year, above the government's 4% target.

A survey of eight economists polled by Bloomberg News had forecast an 8.9 percent jump in the quarter.

The consensus among economists polled by Bloomberg News was for an increase to 104.4, from 102.2 in May.

Economists polled by Bloomberg News forecast improvement in each measure, but they are hardly going out on a limb.