This could add as much as 30 percent to spending, one budget aide said.

"You can't get it all out," said one senior budget aide, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The governor's budget aides say there are larger trends at work.

But a senior Congressional budget aide who shares that view argues that it misses the point.

The overall figures provide the Governor and her budget aides a measure of exoneration.

Ms. Sawhill, the budget aide, suggested giving fewer food stamps to people who get housing aid.

The reduction could save $20 million to $30 million and is among a menu of options that the Mayor's budget aides have proposed.

As a result, the Mayor's budget aides forecast annual shortfalls that will increase to nearly $3 billion by 2001.

Privately, Republican budget aides are more frank: seven years is merely an accident of a 1993 plan to reach balance by century's end.

Although he has supported the raises, Mr. Clinton and his budget aides have objected to a $10 billion real increase.