Republican political analysts said they did not expect Mr. Laxalt's absence from the race to have much effect on the Republican field.

Some Republican political analysts are not convinced that such tactics will signficantly alter the competition.

Republican analysts say the two efforts could dovetail in Congress around the idea of private retirement accounts.

"They can help in the South, where the President is most competitive already," said Kevin Phillips, a Republican political analyst.

But Republican analysts are clearly concerned about the potential for a debilitating split within the party if Mr. McCain's strategy succeeds.

Kevin P. Phillips, a Republican political analyst, said the hearings "reinforced the sense that the man was not in charge of his own White House."

Republican analysts on the Senate Budget Committee said the combined impact of those changes would increase next year's total budget deficit to $180 billion.

Republican analysts called that a sign of Mr. Bush's potential appeal on an issue of traditional family values.

In the House, where the party has similar hopes, even Republican analysts are predicting that the Democrats will widen their 83-seat margin.

Many Republican analysts agreed with the Democrats that wealthiest families would reap the largest immediate gains, primarily through a cut in the capital gains tax.