While Bush administration officials remain unconvinced that President Megawati will take serious action to reduce the terrorist threat, a leading Indonesian analyst said he believed that she would have no choice.

Indonesian political analysts say the army's suspicions of Mr. Sudharmono were enhanced by the way he was chosen.

Still, Indonesian and foreign analysts list a number of scenarios for possible post-election chaos, and foremost among them is a big victory by Mr. Habibie's ruling party.

With East Timor's history of warfare and revenge, both sides in the conflict are more likely to return to battle rather than to accept defeat, a number of Indonesian and foreign analysts predict.

Indonesian analysts said the Government's concession to international pressure was a painful acknowledgment that the nation was no longer free to determine its economic policy independently of the will of foreign markets.

The Post quotes one Indonesian military analyst saying that indeed, there is anti-white sentiment in East Timor which could make things dangerous for Australian troops.

Protests have already begun, but Indonesian and diplomatic analysts say the demonstrators by themselves are unlikely to pose a serious threat to the government.

But Indonesian analysts say its worth might reach $80 million.

"This is an old fox," said one Indonesian political analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.

One Indonesian political analyst said he was skeptical about how far the talks would go.