"It looks like we're on the road to growth of 2.5 to 3 percent a year," said one senior Administration economist.

Most economists, including the Administration economist, say that several components have since turned up.

But Administration economists predict such action might harm the economy as much as the oil shocks of the 1970's.

Much of the improvement was linked by Administration economists to the economic expansion that began seven years ago and continues to rumble on.

An Administration economist familiar with the proposal said: "Economic change benefits everybody a little, but a few people get hurt a lot.

Some Administration economists think that recent figures for the nation's money supply seem to presage a recession.

"The notion that this will have a tremendous rippling effect throughout the economy is probably overstated," one Administration economist said.

Administration economists predict that annual American economic output could be $100 billion larger within a decade if the trade bill passes.

Administration economists also continue to predict economic growth of around 3 percent for the year.

"These are transitory events," said an Administration economist.