This low level of import growth led to the large trade surpluses that emerged in the 1980s.
To limit import growth to 1 percent, he says, would double this cost of protection by 1996.
Fuel economy gains alone cannot control import growth.
At that rate of unchecked import growth, the US would have been 70% to 75% reliant on foreign oil by about 2015.
But the import growth was substantially offset by stronger exports.
"It's a pretty modest recovery, but it sure hasn't been modest in terms of import growth," he said.
A deficit of $8.7 billion is expected, with import growth likely to be stronger than export growth.
Textile makers, who led the charge to limit import growth to 1 percent annually, reportedly did not expect to win this time around.
Much of October's import growth was caused by high oil prices, which have since subsided.
Data released earlier showed China's import growth fell sharply in June.