It strengthened into a tropical storm the next day, but strong wind shear and low sea-surface temperatures hindered development.
In "wet" years, they believe, changes in sea-surface temperatures favor the development of a stronger summer monsoon over West Africa.
Downloadable data with software showing composite average ocean characteristics (sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration).
The forecast is based on a number of factors, including sea-surface temperatures, atmospheric pressures over the ocean and shifts in major wind currents.
El Nino aside, he said, a wide range of conditions, including warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic, favor hurricane development.
There, Federal forecasters said, sea-surface temperatures last month were more than five degrees above normal.
This was presumed to have happened because of a drop in sea-surface temperatures.
Surface air temperatures and sea-surface temperatures are projected to continually increase (very high confidence).
One new study has found that sea-surface temperatures in 1995 were the highest on record in the tropical North Atlantic.
"Warm sea-surface temperatures are clearly the fuel for intense hurricanes," he said.